The economic data was mostly weak last week. Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 1.3% annualized (from an already anemic 1.7%), durable goods orders declined sharply (although mostly due to the volatile transportation sector), personal income barely increased in August, and the September Chicago PMI declined to the lowest level in 3 years.
There were a few positives: Even though new home sales were slightly below expectations, sales are still up solidly from last year. House prices, according to Case-Shiller, are now up 1.2% year-over-year. Mortgage delinquencies continued to decline. And initial weekly unemployment claims declined in the previous week.
This suggests the economy is still growing sluggishly.
Here is a summary of last week in graphs:
' New Home Sales at 373,000 SAAR in August
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 373 thousand. This was down slightly from a revised 374 thousand SAAR in July (revised up from 372 thousand). Sales in June were revised up.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. This was below expectations of 380,000, but this was another fairly solid report and indicates an ongoing sluggish recovery in residential investment.
"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 141,000. This represents a supply of 4.5 months at the current sales rate."
This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973: Completed, under construction and not started.
The inventory of completed homes for sale was at a record low 38,000 units in August. The combined total of completed and under construction is at the lowest level since this series started.
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