There is plenty of discussion about QE3 (will they or won't they), but another key piece of information released tomorrow is the projections of the FOMC participants. In advance of the meeting I thought I'd take a look back at the previous projections from the June meeting.
The first chart is when participants project the initial increase in the target federal funds rate should occur, and the participants view of the appropriate path of the federal funds rate.
"The shaded bars represent the number of FOMC participants who project that the initial increase in the target federal funds rate (from its current range of 0 to ¼ percent) would appropriately occur in the specified calendar year."
The key is to see if this shifts further to the right with more participants thinking the first rate increase will happen in 2015 or beyond. Many analysts expect that the FOMC will push out their forward guidance to 2015 (from 2014), and that suggests many more participants will view 2015 or beyond as appropriate.
"The dots represent individual policymakers' projections of the appropriate federal funds rate target at the end of each of the next several years and in the longer run. Each dot in that chart represents one policymaker's projection."
This graph will probably be extended to 2015, and once again many participants will probably think the Fed Funds rate will be in the current range into 2015.
On the projections, GDP will probably be revised down again for 2012.
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