Lawler: Early Read: Decent Bounce in Existing Home Sales in August

From economist Tom Lawler:

While I'm missing reports from some key areas of the country, what I've seen so far suggest to me that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors increased significantly on a seasonally adjusted basis last month. Right now my 'best guess' is that the NAR's existing home sales estimate for August will come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.87 million, up 8.9% from July's pace, and up 10.4% from last August's pace. Such a gain would be way above the 'consensus' forecast of a SAAR of 4.55 million, but is consistent with the local realtor/MLS reports I've seen so far.

If indeed the NAR reports such a bounce, this summer's 'pattern of surprises' will be reminiscent of last summer's. Below is a table showing (1) the 'consensus' forecast for existing home sales for last June, July, and August (as measured the NAR; of course the 'preliminary' data have been revised a boatload, including the benchmark and seasonal revisions) right before the NAR's release; (2) the 'actual' preliminary sales pace released by the NAR; and (3) the LEHC forecast for that release.