Summary for Week Ending Nov 9th

The big event this week was the presidential election. For economic data, this was a pretty light week.

The key report was the trade deficit that showed exports increased more than imports in September, and the trade deficit declined.  Also Consumer sentiment has increased to pre-recession levels.

Other data was a little weak: The ISM service index declined in October, and job openings declined in September.

Next week will be busier.

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

' Trade Deficit declined in September to $41.5 Billion

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through September 2012.

Both exports and imports increased in September. Exports are at a new high. The trade deficit was smaller than the consensus forecast of $45.4 billion.

Exports are 13% above the pre-recession peak and up 3.5% compared to September 2011; imports are 1% below the pre-recession peak, and up about 1.5% compared to September 2011.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through September.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $98.88 in September, up from $94.36 per barrel in August. The trade deficit with China increased to $29.1 billion in September, up from $28.0 billion in September 2011. Most of the trade deficit is due to oil and China.

This suggests a small upward revision to Q3 GDP.

' ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreases in October

The October ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 54.2%, down from 55.1% in September. The employment index increased in October to 54.9%, up from 51.1% in September. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This was below the consensus forecast of 54.9% and indicates slower expansion in October than in September. The internals were mixed with the employment index up, but new orders down.

' BLS: Job Openings "essentially unchanged" in September, Up year-over-year

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 3.561 million, down slightly from 3.661 million in August. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are only up about 2% year-over-year compared to September 2011.

Quits decreased in September, and quits are down slightly year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").