Summary for Week Ending Nov 23rd

Last week was a short holiday week and I hope everyone is enjoying their Thanksgiving weekend!

Overall the economic data was positive last week, especially the housing data.  Housing starts were at the highest level in four years, but are still very low - and both comments are important.  Housing (residential investment) is now a tail wind for the economy, and housing can increase significantly from here.

Also the existing home sales market continues to show improvement.  The keys for the existing home report are inventory and the number of conventional sales.  Inventory is down significantly, and conventional sales are increasing.  There will be more housing data next week (New home sales and the Case-Shiller house price indexes).

Initial weekly unemployment claims were still elevated because of Hurricane Sandy, but I expect claims will decline back to the pre-storm level pretty quickly.

Early in the week I spoke with Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider, and he wrote a way too nice article: The Genius Who Invented Economics Blogging Reveals How He Got Everything Right And What's Coming Next.

As I noted, I just track economic data and make a few forecasts - and I didn't invent economic blogging (although I've been at it for eight years). Professor Krugman added a few nice comments: All Hail Calculated Risk.

Excuse my blushing - thanks to all for reading!

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

' Housing Starts increased to 894 thousand SAAR in October

Click on graph for larger image.

Total housing starts were at 894 thousand (SAAR) in October, up 3.6% from the revised September rate of 863 thousand (SAAR). Note that September was revised down from 872 thousand.

Single-family starts decreased slightly to 594 thousand in October.

Total starts are up about 87% from the bottom start rate, and single family starts are up about 70% from the low.

This was above expectations of 840 thousand starts in October. This was mostly because of the volatile multi-family sector that increased sharply in October, however single family starts have increased recently too.   Starts are still very low, but on pace to be up about 25% from 2011.