For a few months the incoming data was above expectations. This was a combination of somewhat stronger reports and very low expectations. Since then expectations have increased, and the data has been a little weaker - so the data has been mostly below expectations for several weeks now. This doesn't suggest a sharp slowdown, just more sluggish growth as the economy continues to recover from the financial crisis, and as household continue to deleverage.
This was another week of somewhat disappointing data, a key exception being very strong retail sales in March. Housing starts declined in March, although the decline was mostly due to the volatile multi-family sector (and permits were up suggesting a bounce back next month). Existing home sales were below expectations, but inventory was down again ' and is now down 21.8% year-over-year. Weekly initial unemployment claims declined, but the overall level is still fairly high.
Here is a summary in graphs:
' Housing Starts declined in March
Click on graph for larger image.
Total housing starts were at 654 thousand (SAAR) in March, down 5.8% from the revised February rate of 694 thousand (SAAR). Note that February was revised down from 698 thousand.
Single-family starts declined 0.2% to 462 thousand in March. February was revised up to 463 thousand from 457 thousand.
Total starts are up 37% from the bottom, and single family starts are up 31% from the low.
This was well below expectations of 700 thousand starts in March, but mostly because of multi-family starts.
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