Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

CR Note: Some interesting comments from Tom Lawler ...

From economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March: Not Much Change (SAAR) from February, but Aggregate Numbers Miss Strengthening Market

While I'm missing reports from several key markets, my current estimate based on regional tracking is that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million in March, unchanged from February's pace, and up 7.7% from last March's seasonally adjusted pace. While the 'flattish' sales in March relative to February (on a SAAR basis) might seem surprising to some given various anecdotal stories of strengthening markets, the 'flat' reading does NOT negate the validity of many of these reports. Rather, a major reason for the 'disappointing' sales readings for March (and February) relative to a year ago is the substantial decline in REO/foreclosure sales, which to a large extent is the result of sharply lower REO properties for sale.

Consider, e.g., sales reports from the Vegas, Phoenix, Sacramento, Minneapolis, Mid-Atlantic, and Orlando markets broken out by short sales, foreclosure sales, and 'non-distressed' sales, shown on the table below.