There was little economic data released this week. The trade deficit was much higher than expected, however the data might have been impacted by the port strike on the west coast. The BLS reported job openings were up about 12% year-over-year and the 4-week average for initial weekly unemployment claims increased a little. Not much data, but next week will be busy!
Some quarterly data was released for office, apartment and mall vacancy rates and rents. All vacancy rates declined, although both office and mall rates are still near the cycle high - and apartment vacancy rates are already low.
Here are some thoughts on the economy in 2013:
' Question #1 for 2013: US Fiscal Policy
' Question #2 for 2013: Will the U.S. economy grow in 2013?
' Question #3 for 2013: How many payroll jobs will be added in 2013?
' Question #4 for 2013: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2013?
' Question #5 for 2013: Will the inflation rate rise or fall in 2013?
' Question #6 for 2013: What will happen with Monetary Policy and QE3?
' Question #7 for 2013: What will happen with house prices in 2013?
' Question #8 for 2013: Will Housing inventory bottom in 2013?
' Question #9 for 2013: How much will Residential Investment increase?
' Question #10 for 2013: Europe and the Euro
And here is a summary of last week in graphs:
' Trade Deficit increased in November to $48.7 Billion
Click on graph for larger image.
From Commerce: "[T]otal November exports of $182.6 billion and imports of $231.3 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $48.7 billion, up from $42.1 billion in October, revised. November exports were $1.7 billion more than October exports of $180.8 billion. November imports were $8.4 billion more than October imports of $222.9 billion."
Exports are 10% above the pre-recession peak and up 3.3% compared to November 2011; imports are near the pre-recession peak, and up 2.5% compared to November 2011.
The increase in the trade deficit in November was due to non-petroleum products. The trade deficit with the euro area was $10.6 billion in November, up from $8.2 billion in November 2011. It appears the eurozone recession is still impacting trade.
Note: The trade deficit might have been skewed by the port strike that started in late November.
' BLS: Job Openings "unchanged" in November
This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.
Jobs openings increased slightly in November to 3.676 million, up from 3.665 million in October. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 12% year-over-year compared to November 2011. Quits increased slightly in November, and quits are up 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
Not much changes month-to-month in this report, but the trend suggests a gradually improving labor market.
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