The headlines last week were once again mostly about Europe and Greece, especially the possibility of Greece exiting the euro (aka "Grexit") after the next election on June 17th. The outcome of the election is uncertain, although most Greeks and European policymakers would like Greece to stay in the euro. One thing is certain, Greece will be in the headlines for at least another month.
Most of the US economic data was at or above expectations last week. An exception was the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, but that was partially offset by faster expansion in the Empire State survey.
Housing starts were solid as the slow housing recovery continues. Industrial production and capacity utilization increased, and the mortgage deliquencies are trending down.
The US economy remains sluggish. However, excluding Europe (and other international issues), the outlook would be improving. Two key questions are: what will happen in Greece and Europe? and how will that impact the US economy? I'll try to add some thoughts soon, but even with the problems in Europe, a recession in the US seems unlikely this year.
Here is a summary in graphs:
' Housing Starts increased to 717,000 in April
Click on graph for larger image.
Total housing starts were at 717 thousand (SAAR) in April, up 2.6% from the revised March rate of 699 thousand (SAAR). Note that March was revised up sharply from 654 thousand to 699 thousand..
Single-family starts increased 2.3% to 492 thousand in April. March was revised up to 481 thousand from 462 thousand.
Total starts are up 50% from the bottom, and single family starts are up 39% from the low.
This was above expectations of 690 thousand starts in April, and was especially strong given the upward revisions to prior months.
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