More FOMC Preview

Most of this article is about the ECB and there isn't anything new on the Fed, from Jon Hilsenrath and Brian Blackstone at the WSJ: Heat Rises on Central Banks

The two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting convenes Tuesday, following signs that Fed officials have become more willing to act to address disappointingly slow U.S. economic growth.
...
The Fed could unveil a new program for buying mortgage or government securities to bring down long-term interest rates, or take other actions to spur growth, or simply promise to do more later if necessary. Officials might wait until September, when they will formally update their economic forecasts, before deciding anything significant.

From Goldman Sachs analysts today:

Although a new Fed asset purchase program is a possibility in the near term if the data continue to disappoint, our central expectation is for a return to QE in December or early 2013.
...
We expect an extension of the current 'exceptionally low'at least through late 2014' interest rate guidance to "mid 2015." Such a shift would roughly restore the forward guidance to the same three-year horizon as at the January FOMC meeting, when the "late 2014" formulation was first adopted. We would, however, regard this rate extension as a relatively modest step.

Personal Income increased 0.5% in June, Spending decreased slightly

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June:

Personal income increased $61.8 billion, or 0.5 percent ... in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $1.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.1 percent in June, in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent in May. ... PCE price index -- The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in June, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in May. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $529.5 billion in June, compared with $472.4 billion in May. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of DPI -- was 4.4 percent in June, compared with 4.0 percent in May.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

A key point is the PCE price index has only increased 1.5% over the last year, and core PCE is up 1.8%.

FHFA Nears Decision on Debt Forgiveness, and Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Data Show Fannie, Freddie Savings From Debt Forgiveness

As the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac nears its decision on whether to approve debt forgiveness for troubled borrowers, a new analysis by the regulator suggests that taxpayers could actually benefit from the move...

In April, the agency said that loan forgiveness would save about $1.7 billion for the companies, relative to other types of relief. At the time, the agency said that because the Treasury was paying to subsidize those write-downs, the relief would still cost taxpayers $2.1 billion, offsetting any savings to the companies.

But the latest analysis done by the agency found that such write-downs would generate $3.6 billion in savings for the companies, under certain assumptions, according to people familiar with the analysis. Even after subtracting the cost of the Treasury subsidies, the program would save $1 billion, these people said. As many as 500,000 borrowers could be eligible, these people said.
...
The FHFA has raised other concerns beyond the cost of such write-downs. Chief among them is the fear that more borrowers, upon hearing that Fannie and Freddie are instituting a debt-forgiveness program, might default to seek more generous terms.

FHFA acting director Edward DeMarco focused on this last point in his speech in April:

One factor that needs to be considered is the borrower incentive effects. That means, will some percentage of borrowers who are current on their loans, be encouraged to either claim a hardship or actually go delinquent to capture the benefits of principal forgiveness?
...
It is difficult to model these borrower incentive effects with any precision. What we can do is give a sense of how many current borrowers would have to become 'strategic modifiers' for the NPV economic benefit provided by the HAMP triple PRA incentives to be eliminated. In this context, a 'strategic modifier' would be a borrower that either claims a financial hardship or misses two consecutive mortgage payments in order to attempt to qualify for HAMP and a principal forgiveness modification.

The FHFA might decide that the risk from "strategic modifiers" outweighs the possible savings.

Also from Nick Timiraos at the WSJ Are Home Prices Rising? A Price-Index Primer

On Tuesday:
' At 8:30 AM ET, the Personal Income and Outlays report for June will be released by the BEA. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income in June, and for 0.1% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

' At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 1.4% decrease year-over-year in Composite 20 prices (NSA) in May. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to decline 1.0% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.8% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

' At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 52.5, down from 52.9 in June.

' Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for July. The consensus is for a decrease to 61.5 from 62.0 last month.

And the final question for the July economic contest:

Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

This will be a busy week with the two day FOMC meeting ending on Wednesday, the ECB meeting in Europe on Thursday, and several key economic releases including the July employment report on Friday.

First from Reuters: Juncker: Euro zone leaders, ECB to act on euro - paper

[Eurogroup head Jean-Claude] Juncker told Germany's Sueddeutsche Zeitung and France's Le Figaro in reports made available on Sunday that leaders would decide in the next few days what measures to take to tackle Spanish bond yields which last week touched euro-era highs. They had "no time to lose," he said.

' On Monday, at 10:30 AM ET, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for July will be released. This is the last of regional surveys for July. The consensus is for 2.5 for the general business activity index, down from 5.8 in June.

The Asian markets are green tonight, with the Nikkei up 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.1%. Check out the chart for the Shanghai composite - the index has been drifting down for 2+ years and is at the levels of early 2009.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are down about 5, and the DOW futures down about 30.

Oil: WTI futures are at $90.04(this is down from $109.77 in February, but up last week) and Brent is at $106.51 per barrel.

Yesterday:
' Summary for Week Ending July 27th
' Schedule for Week of July 29th

And the final question for the July economic contest:

Schedule for Week of July 29th

Earlier:
' Summary for Week Ending July 27th

The key report for this week will be the July employment report to be released on Friday, Aug 3rd. Other key reports include the May Case-Shiller house price indexes on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, vehicle sales on Wednesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing (service) index on Friday.

On Wednesday, the FOMC concludes a two day meeting, and there is the possibility of additional policy accommodation. The European Central Bank (ECB) holds a meeting on Thursday, and there will be a focus on ECB President Mario Draghi's comments following the meeting.

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 900 Institutions

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 27, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, the FDIC released its enforcement actions through June 2012, which led to many change to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. For the week, there were seven removals and two additions leaving the list at 900 institutions with assets of $349.5 billion. A year ago, the list held 995 institutions with $415.4 billion in assets. For the month of July 2012, there were 12 additions and 29 removals, with 20 from action termination, six from failure, two from unassisted mergers, and one from voluntary liquidation.

The seven removals this week came from action termination including Community Commerce Bank, Claremont, CA ($299 million); Traverse City State Bank, Traverse City, MI ($188 million); Security Bank, S.B., Springfield, IL ($160 million); Professional Bank, Coral Gables, FL ($152 million); Progrowth Bank, Nicollet, MN ($133 million); Capital Community Bank, Provo, UT ($122 million); and Colonial American Bank, Horsham, PA ($60 million). Professional Bank is only the 5th bank from Florida to be removed from the list because of action termination. Oregon and Georgia have only seen one bank and two banks, respectively, removed from the list. For the second week in a row, there was a failure in Georgia -- Jasper Banking Company, Jasper, GA -- that failed without being under an formal enforcement action.

The two additions were South Valley Bank & Trust, Klamath Falls, OR ($854 million) and First Security Bank of Helena, Helena, MT ($42 million).

The FDIC [issued] Prompt Corrective Action orders against Sevier County Bank, Sevierville, TN ($323 million) and Westside Community Bank, University Place, WA ($113 million).

Earlier:
' Summary for Week Ending July 27th
' Schedule for Week of July 29th

Lawler: Expect "significant" upward revisions for Q2 New Home Sales

From economist Tom Lawler:

D.R. Horton, the largest US home builder in 2011, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30th, 2012 totaled 6,079, up 24.7% from the comparable quarter of 2011. The company's sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 23% last quarter, down from 27% a year ago. Home deliveries last quarter totaled 4,957, up 8.8% from the comparable quarter of 2011, at an average sales price of $224,975, up 5.2% from a year ago. The company's order backlog at the end of June was 7,311, up 30.6% from last June.

Standard Pacific Corp., the 13th largest US home builder in 2011, reported that net home orders in the quarter ended June 30th, 2012 (ex JVs) totaled 1,108, up 45.0% from the comparable quarter of 2011. The company's sales cancellation rate, expressed as a % of gross orders, was 11% last quarter, down from 14% a year ago. Home deliveries totaled 815, up 33.6% from the comparable quarter of 2011, at an average sales price of $337,000, up 0.6% from a year ago. The company's order backlog at the end of June was 1,266, up 62.1% from last June.

Here are some summary stats of orders, deliveries, and backlog for builders who have reported results for last year.

Summary for Week ending July 27th

This was one of those weeks were Europe stole the headlines, especially comments from ECB President Mario Draghi. Of course Draghi has said before that the ECB would do 'whatever it takes', so this wasn't really new news.

Here was Lou Barnes reaction:

Sentiment turned yesterday on ECB President Mario Draghi's "...The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. Believe me, it will be enough." He went on to announce his plans to date Jennifer Lopez tonight, Kim Bassinger tomorrow, and win the decathlon gold next week.

If a central bank has to promise to preserve something, odds are high that it is already dead. This is the talk of 0-10 football coaches. Imagine if an American Fed Chair said he would "preserve the dollar." Not defend its value versus other currencies; not prevent inflation or deflation, but preserve its existence? Elbow the women and children out of the lifeboats.

Once again the economic data was weak. Real GDP for Q2 was reported at a 1.5% annualized rate. And even new home sales were below expectations, although with upward revisions to previous months ' and an expected upward revision to the June sales rate ' the report was actually fairly solid.

Manufacturing data was weak again, with the Richmond survey falling off a cliff, and the MarkIt Flash PMI declining in July. However the Kansas City manufacturing survey showed modest growth.

In other data, consumer sentiment was up slightly, weekly initial unemployment claims were down, and the trucking index increased. All of this data suggests more sluggish growth.

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

' Real GDP increased 1.5% annual rate in Q2

The Q2 GDP report was weak, but slightly better than expected. Final demand weakened in Q2 as personal consumption expenditures increased at only a 1.5% annual rate, and residential investment increased at a 9.7% annual rate.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter centered average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

For this graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.

The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.

Residential Investment (RI) made a positive contribution to GDP in Q2 for the fifth consecutive quarter. Usually residential investment leads the economy, but that didn't happen this time because of the huge overhang of existing inventory, but now RI is contributing. The good news: Residential investment has clearly bottomed.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP is still near record lows, but it is increasing. Usually RI bounces back quickly following a recession, but this time there is a wide bottom because of the excess supply of existing vacant housing units.

Last year the increase in RI was mostly from multifamily and home improvement investment. Now the increase is from most categories including single family. I'll break down Residential Investment (RI) into components after the GDP details are released this coming week. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.

Overall the revisions to the last three years were pretty minor.

This graph shows GDP per quarter as a percent change annualized.

There were some downward revisions in Q1 and Q2 2010, and some upward revisions in 2011.

This was slightly above expectations.

' New Home Sales declined in June to 350,000 Annual Rate

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 350 thousand. This was down from a revised 382 thousand SAAR in May (revised up from 369 thousand). Sales in March and April were revised up too.

This graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even though sales are still very low, new home sales have clearly bottomed. New home sales have averaged 358 thousand SAAR over the first 6 months of 2012, after averaging under 300 thousand for the previous 18 months. All of the recent revisions have been up too.

So even though sales in June were below the consensus forecast of 370,000, this was still a fairly solid report given the upward revisions to previous months. Based on recent revisions, sales in June will probably be revised up too.

Zillow forecasts 1% Year-over-year decline for May Case-Shiller House Price index

Note: The Case-Shiller report is for May (really an average of prices in March, April and May). This data is released with a significant lag, see: House Prices and Lagged Data

I think it is too early to look for a year-over-year increase in Case-Shiller prices, although some analysts think it is possible in the May report. We are definitely getting close - and it will make headlines when it happens.

Zillow Forecast: Zillow Forecast: May Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 1% Decline from One Year Ago

On Tuesday, July 31st, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for May will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 1 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 1.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from April to May will be 0.8 percent for the 20-City Composite and 0.9 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the May Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.

May is the fourth consecutive month with monthly appreciation for the Case-Shiller indices, with May projected to be a bit stronger than the previous two months.

Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.

One of the keys this year is to watch the year-over-year change in the various house price indexes. The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 2.2% and 1.9% YoY respectively in April, after declining 2.9% and 2.6% in March. Zillow is forecasting a significantly smaller year-over-year decline in May.

Bank Failure #39 in 2012: Jasper Banking Company, Jasper, Georgia

by Bill McBride on 7/27/2012 05:51:00 PM

Friday: GDP, Consumer Sentiment

On Friday ...
' At 8:30 AM ET, the Q2 advance GDP will be released. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.2% annualized in Q2. The BEA will also release the revised estimates for 2009 through First Quarter 2012. If GDP is revised significantly up or down, this might be part of the FOMC discussion next week.

The BEA put out an excellent note on revisions this week: Revising Economic Indicators: Here's Why the Numbers Can Change

The public wants accurate data and wants it as soon as possible. To meet that need, BEA publishes early estimates that are based on partial data. Even though these data aren't complete, they do provide an accurate general picture of economic activity. ...

BEA produces three estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for a given quarter. Each includes updated, more complete, and more accurate information as it becomes available. The first, called the 'advance' estimate, typically receives the most attention and is released roughly 4 weeks after the end of a quarter. ...

When BEA calculates the advance estimate, the Bureau doesn't yet have complete source data, with the largest gaps in data related to the third month of the quarter. In particular, the advance estimate is lacking complete source data on inventories, trade, and consumer spending on services. Therefore, BEA must make assumptions for these missing pieces based in part on past trends. ...

As new and more complete data become available, that information is incorporated into the second and third GDP estimates. About 45 percent of the advance estimate is based on initial or early estimates from various monthly and quarterly surveys that are subject to revision for various reasons, including late respondents that are eventually incorporated into the survey results. Another roughly 14 percent of the advance estimate is based on historical trends.

' At 9:55 AM, the final Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for July will be released. The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 72.0.

For the monthly economic question contest:

' And at 10:00 AM, the Q2 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau will be released. This data might indicate the trend, but there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

Real GDP increased 1.5% annual rate in Q2

From the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2012, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. [revised up from 1.9 percent]

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a negative contribution from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE, an acceleration in imports, and decelerations in residential fixed investment and in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment, a smaller decrease in federal government spending, and an acceleration in exports.

Overall the revisions to the last three years were pretty minor.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real GDP before (blue) and after (red) the revision. The recession was not quite as deep as previously reported, and the recovery in 2010 was slightly slower - and the recovery in 2011 slightly faster.

Real GDP in Q1 was slightly above the previously reported level indicating the output gap is about the same as previously estimated.

The second graph shows the same data but as a percent change annualized.

There were some downward revisions in Q1 and Q2 2010, and some upward revisions in 2011.

A couple of comments:
' Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first.

' Government spending continued to be a drag at all levels, but at a slower pace: The Federal government decreased 0.4 percent in Q2 compared to a 4.2 percent decrease in Q1, and state and local government decreased 2.1 percent compared to 2.2 percent in Q1.

This was above expectations. I'll have more on GDP later ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 353,000

The DOL reports:

In the week ending July 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. (Revised up from 386,000). The 4-week moving average was 367,250, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 367,250.

The sharp swings over the last few weeks are apparently related to difficulty adjusting for auto plant shutdowns.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

This was well below the consensus forecast of 380,000 and is the lowest level for the four week average since March.

WSJ: Fed Moving Closer to more Accommodation

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Sees Action if Growth Doesn't Pick Up Soon

Federal Reserve officials, impatient with the economy's sluggish growth and high unemployment, are moving closer to taking new steps to spur activity and hiring.

Since their June policy meeting, officials have made clear'in interviews, speeches and testimony to Congress'that they find the current state of the economy unacceptable. Many officials appear increasingly inclined to move unless they see evidence soon that activity is picking up on its own.

Amid the recent wave of disappointing economic news, conversation inside the Fed has turned more intensely toward the questions of how and when to move. Central-bank officials could take new steps at their meeting next week, July 31 and Aug. 1, though they might wait until their September meeting to accumulate more information on the pace of growth and job gains before deciding whether to act. ... There are several reasons why Fed officials might wait for their September meeting to decide whether to proceed. By then they will have seen two more monthly unemployment reports and two more months of data on output, spending and investment. Fed officials update their economic projections at the September meeting and Mr. Bernanke holds his a quarterly news conference after, which would give him an opportunity to publicly explain the Fed's thinking.
...
A new round of bond-buying would be politically controversial so close to the November presidential election. ... Another option is a change in the Fed's public communication about its plans.

There are arguments for waiting until September (more data, updated projections), but I think there is a reasonable chance they will move on August 1st since their current projections are already unacceptable - and the data has been mostly disappointing since their last meeting.

The Q2 GDP report to be released on Friday will be an important piece of data - not just the Q2 growth rate, but the annual revisions. If GDP is revised down, then that would suggest a larger "output gap" - and that would probably influence many FOMC members to vote for more accommodation now.

MBA: Refinance Activity Highest since 2009

From the MBA: As Low Rate Environment Persists, Refinance Applications Reach Highest Level Since 2009 in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week to its highest level since April 19, 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier to its lowest level since June 22, 2012.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) remained unchanged at 3.74 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, with points decreasing to 0.43 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. The purchase index has been mostly moving sideways over the last two years.

Note: Yesterday Zillow reported record low mortgage rates in their survey: "30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow(R) Mortgage Marketplace is currently 3.35 percent, down seven basis points from 3.42 percent at the same time last week."

The second graph shows the refinance index.

The refinance index is at the highest level since 2009.

This increase in refinance activity is probably a result of both record low mortgage rates and HARP activity.

Wednesday: New Home Sales

Perhaps a little good housing news on Wednesday, but first, on Europe from Tim Duy: Is There Even a Panic Button in Europe?

I didn't think it was possible, but my confidence in the ability of European policymakers to pull the Continent out of crisis continues to fall. This is saying a lot because I had virtually no confidence to begin with.
...
The Greeks were never given a bailout plan that had any hope of success.
...
Whether or not Greece can be forced from the Euro with little impact elsewhere remains to be seen. I doubt we will need to wait much longer to learn the outcome of Grexit. But the devastating train that is the debt crisis keeps rolling right along, currently crashing through Spain's economy.

And make no mistake, European policymakers have learned nothing from the Greek experience. One gets the sense that policymakers think the prescription was correct, but that the patient was simply unwilling to take the medicine. Where Greece failed, Spain will succeed ...

Europe is still getting "Schäuble'd" as policymakers continue to repeat the same mistakes. Oh well, the beatings will continue until morale improves.

On Wednesday:
' At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications and refinance indexes. I expect record low mortgage rates and more refinance activity.

' At 10:00 AM, the New Home Sales report for June is scheduled to be released by the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 370 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in June from 369 thousand in May.

Tuesday: Flash PMI, Richmond Fed Survey, FHFA House Prices

The key stories today were about Europe (once again). The yields on Spanish and Italian bond yields increased. Ezra Klein calls a graph of Spanish bond yields the scariest chart in the world today.

Also Spain and Italy banned some short selling and Moody's downgraded their outlook on Germany's rating to negative. Another day in the eurozone crisis.

On Tuesday:
' At 9:00 AM ET, the Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash will be released. This is a new release and might provide hints about the ISM PMI for July. The consensus is for a reading of 52.6, down slightly from 52.9 in June.

' At 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 0 for this survey from -3 in June (above zero is expansion).

' Also at 10:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for May is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in house prices.

Zillow: "Housing Market Turns Corner"

by Bill McBride on 7/24/2012 12:14:00 AM

DataQuick: California Foreclosure Activity Lowest in Five Years

From DataQuick: California Q2 Foreclosure Activity Lowest in Five Years

The number of California homes entering the formal foreclosure process dropped in the second quarter to its lowest level since early 2007. The decline stems from a combination of factors, including an improving housing market, the gradual burning off of the most egregious mortgages originated from 2005 through 2007, and the growing use of short sales, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 54,615 Notices of Default (NODs) were recorded on houses and condos during the April-though-June period. That was down 2.9 percent from 56,258 for the prior three months, and down 3.6 percent from 56,633 in second-quarter 2011, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.
...
Most of the loans going into default are still from the 2005-2007 period. The median origination quarter for defaulted loans is still third-quarter 2006. That has been the case for three years, indicating that weak underwriting standards peaked then. ...
The all-time peak for Trustees Deeds was 79,511 in third-quarter 2008. The state's all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005, DataQuick reported.
...
Foreclosure resales accounted for 27.9 percent of all California resale activity last quarter, down from a revised 33.6 percent the prior quarter and 35.6 percent a year ago. It peaked at 57.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009. Foreclosure resales varied significantly by county last quarter, from 7.3 percent in San Francisco County to 47.4 percent in Madera County.

Short sales - transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property - made up an estimated 18.0 percent of statewide resale activity last quarter. That was down from an estimated 20.1 percent the prior quarter and up from 17.4 percent a year earlier. In terms of the number of short sales, last quarter's estimated 20,141 was up 13.0 percent from the prior quarter and up 10.2 percent from a year earlier.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the number of NODs filed per year (according to DataQuick). The estimate for 2012 is twice the Q1 and Q2 level.

The number of NODs is still very high - well above the peak of the early '90s bust, but the number of NODs has been falling. When the number of NODs falls below the 1996 level (peak of previous housing bust) - that will really be progress.

WSJ: "As Homes Go, So Do Pickups"

As residential investment increases, there will be positive spillover effects ... usually it is "As housing goes, so goes the economy!"

From Mike Ramsey at the WSJ: As Homes Go, So Do Pickups (ht Joe)

[I]n the past few months, more lots have been cleared for construction and [Hardwood's] phone has been ringing more frequently. So in June he went out and bought a new Chevrolet 2500 diesel truck with a backup camera and a hands-free Bluetooth phone link.

"There is a lot more steady and consistent work," said the 30-year-old Mr. Harwood, whose company Broadleaf Landscape, in Damascus, Md., does a lot of work at new homes. "I was more comfortable with buying a new truck at this point in time because of the market change."
...
In the first half of this year, sales of full-size pickups made by the Detroit Three increased 13%, to 707,175 vehicles.

Yesterday:
' Summary for Week Ending July 20th
' Schedule for Week of July 22nd

Chicago Fed: Growth in Economic Activity below trend in June

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic activity increased in June

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to '0.15 in June from '0.48 in May. ...

The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased from '0.38 in May to '0.20 in June'its fourth consecutive reading below zero. June's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests growth was below trend in June.

According to the Chicago Fed:

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index

First, from the Financial Times on "open-ended QE": Bleak jobs outlook raises heat on Fed

In an interview with the Financial Times, [San Francisco Fed President John Williams] forecast that unless 'further action' was taken, there would be a lack of progress in boosting the jobs market ...

He added that there would also be benefits in having an open-ended programme of QE, where the ultimate amount of purchases was not fixed in advance ... 'The main benefit from my point of view is it will get the markets to stop focusing on the terminal date [when a programme of purchases ends] and also focusing on, 'Oh, are they going to do QE3?'' he said. Instead, markets would adjust their expectation of Fed purchases as economic conditions changed.
excerpt with permission

The key releases this week are the new home sales report on Wednesday and the advance Q2 GDP report on Friday.

' On Monday, at 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed is schedule to release the National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data and will probably be fairly weak.

The Asian markets are red tonight, with the Nikkei down 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite down 1.1%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are down about 6, and the DOW futures down about 50.

Oil: WTI futures are at $91.12 (this is down from $109.77 in February, but up last week) and Brent is at $106.17 per barrel.

Yesterday:
' Summary for Week Ending July 13th
' Schedule for Week of July 15th

Two more questions this week for the July contest:

Schedule for Week of July 22nd

Earlier:
' Summary for Week Ending July 20th

This will be an important week for economic data. The key U.S. economic report for the coming week is the Q2 advance GDP report to be released on Friday; this is the last major economic release before the FOMC meeting the following week.

Also New Home sales will be released on Wednesday.

For manufacturing, two regional manufacturing reports will be released (Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys).

Bank makes $1 Million on Foreclosure

It looks like Capital One Bank made $1 million on this foreclosure.

From the O.C. Register: $8.1M oceanfront home sells as foreclosure

Located at 989 Cliff Drive on the oceanfront above Laguna Beach's Shaw's Cove, the Mission style villa sold for $8.1 million in an all cash deal ... The Cliff Drive property sold to the bank for $7,006,347 December 28, 2011.

Actress Diane Keaton bought the house in 2004 for "around $7.5 million" and sold it in 2005 for $14.5 million (nice flip!).

Capital One Bank foreclosed on the home in December 2011. There were no bidders and the house went back to the bank for just over $7 million.

Of course Capital One Bank could have bid less than they were owed at auction (maybe someone can pull up the details), but with the house selling at the asking price of $8.1 million for all cash, it appears Bank One made $1.1 million minus expenses.

Update: Any extra proceeds probably go to the borrower above what the bank was owed - I'm trying to find the state law in California. (ht Shnaps)

Update2: It appears update 1 was incorrect in California. Also apparently the first was greater than $7 million (around $7.8 million with costs), and the bank wouldn't have made any money after selling expenses. But if there was some extra, it would go to the bank in California according to several sources.

Earlier:
' Summary for Week Ending July 20th
' Schedule for Week of July 22nd

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 905 Institutions

Closings and enforcement activities by the FDIC and OCC led to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. This week just about every type of change occurred except for the issuance/termination of a Prompt Corrective Action order. In all there were nine additions and 16 removals that included four failures, one voluntary liquidation, two unassisted mergers, and nine action terminations. These changes leave the list with 905 institutions with assets of $349.7 billion. A year ago, the list held 993 institutions with assets of $415.7 billion.

The nine additions were First Federal Savings Bank, Ottawa, IL ($408 million); Newton Federal Bank, Covington, GA ($239 million); Borrego Springs Bank, National Association, La Mesa, CA ($141 million); Clay County Savings Bank, Liberty, MO ($102 million Ticker: CCFC); Pickens Savings and Loan Association, FA, Pickens, SC ($101 million); Central Federal Savings and Loan Association of Chicago, Chicago, IL ($97 million); The First National Bank of Wellston, Wellston, OH ($95 million Ticker: MDWE); Commonwealth National Bank, Mobile, AL ($68 million); and Summit National Bank, Hulett, WY ($67 million).

The nine action terminations were Meridian Bank, National Association, Wickenburg, AZ ($886 million); Great Lakes Bank, National Association, Blue Island, Il ($626 million); First Trade Union Bank, Boston, MA ($588 million); Metro United Bank, San Diego, CA ($396 million Ticker: MCBI); Premier Bank, Dubuque, IA ($260 million); Canon National Bank, Canon City, CO ($228 million); First National Bank of Wyoming, Laramie, WY ($172 million); Heritage Bank, National Association, Phoenix, AZ ($102 million); and The Federal Savings Bank, Overland Park, KS ($75 million Ticker: KCLI).

Union Bank, Kansas City, MO ($456 million) voluntarily surrender its charter. Unassisted mergers were done by First National Bank of the Mid-Cities, Bedford, TX ($35 million) and The First State Bank of Burlingame, Burlingame, KS ($25 million).

The four failures were First Cherokee State Bank, Woodstock, GA ($223 million); Second Federal Savings and Loan Association of Chicago, Chicago, IL ($199 million); Heartland Bank, Leawood, KS ($110 million); and The Royal Palm Bank of Florida, Naples, FL ($87 million). Heartland Bank and Royal Palm Bank were affiliates and commonly owned by Mercantile Bancorp, Inc., Quincy Il. Mercantile Bancorp also owns Mercantile Bank, Quincy, Il ($510 million), which is on the Unofficial Problem Bank List that was not closed. The FDIC failed bank press releases did not indicate if any of the affiliates were closed under cross guaranty authority or why Mercantile Bank was allowed to remain open. The other failure Friday night was Georgia Trust Bank, Buford, GA, which appears to have failed not being subject to a timely issued enforcement action. Hard to believe at this stage of the crisis, especially in Georgia where 82 banks have failed, for a bank to fail without a corrective plan in place.

There were three name changes that were made this week -- First Midwest Bank, Centerville, SD; is now known as One American Bank; Community Business Bank, Sauk City, WI; is now known as Wisconsin River Bank; and Madison National Bank, Merrick, NY, is now known as First National Bank of New York.

Next week we anticipate the FDIC will release its actions through June 2012.

Bank Failure #38: Second Federal Savings and Loan Association of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

by Bill McBride on 7/20/2012 08:53:00 PM

Bank Failure #37 in 2012: Heartland Bank, Leawood, Kansas

by Bill McBride on 7/20/2012 06:07:00 PM

Summary for Week ending July 20th

For the last few months, the economic data has been weak and disappointing. Last week I joked: "Luckily there are a few housing reports next week, so all the data will not be grim.", and sure enough the housing data was better than expected (still historically weak, but definitely improving).

Housing started the week off with July home builder confidence at the highest level since March 2007. Then housing starts for June were reported at 760 thousand, and finally the existing home sales report showed the largest year-over-year decline in inventory ever reported. (Sales were weaker than expected, but the key number in the NAR report is inventory).

Unfortunately some non-housing economic data was released too. Retail sales were especially weak in June, initial weekly unemployment claims increased sharply, the Architecture Billings Index (mostly commercial real estate) showed further contraction, and the regional manufacturing surveys suggested ongoing weakness in July.

There were a couple of non-housing positives: Industrial production was up in June, and inflation was benign.

Luckily there is another housing report next week: June New Home sales. But the key report next week will be Q2 GDP - and that will be UGLY.

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

' Housing Starts increased to 760 thousand in June, Highest since October 2008

Click on graph for larger image.

Total housing starts were at 760 thousand (SAAR) in June, up 6.9% from the revised May rate of 711 thousand (SAAR). Note that May was revised up from 708 thousand. April was revised up slightly too.

Single-family starts increased 4.7% to 539 thousand in June.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that total housing starts have been increasing lately after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

Total starts are up 59% from the bottom start rate, and single family starts are up 53% from the low.

This was above expectations of 745 thousand starts in June. This is another fairly strong housing report.

LA Times: "Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach building at furious pace"

Here is a sector that is growing ... expecting more imports from Asia:

From Ronald White at the LA Times: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach building at furious pace

At the edge of San Pedro Bay, home of North America's largest cargo complex, they're building new piers, wharves and rail yards at a furious pace ... So much construction is underway that the new facilities by themselves would move more freight than the entire port of Savannah, Ga., which ranks No. 4 among the continent's ports.
...
The most expensive and extensive upgrades in the history of both ports will cost nearly $6 billion.
...
About 640,000 people work in trade-related jobs in [SoCal] ... That's up from a low of fewer than 600,000 during the recession, but still far short of the 709,000 trade jobs in pre-recession 2007.

Earlier on Existing Home Sales:
' Existing Home Sales in June: 4.37 million SAAR, 6.6 months of supply
' Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
' Existing Home Sales graphs

FNC: Residential Property Values increased 0.6% in May

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and other house price indexes.

FNC released their May index data today. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index' (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 0.6% in May (Composite 100 index). The other RPIs (10-MSA, 20-MSA, 30-MSA) increased between 0.5% and 0.8% in May. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

The year-over-year trends continued to show improvement in May, with all four composite indexes down 1.8% to 2.1% compared to May 2011. For all the indexes, this is the smallest year-over-year decline in the FNC index since year-over-year prices started falling in 2007 (five years ago).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is based on the FNC index (four composites) through May 2012. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Some of the month-to-month gain is seasonal since this index is NSA. The key is the indexes are showing less of a year-over-year decline in May. If house prices have bottomed, the year-over-year decline should turn positive later this year or early in 2013.

The May Case-Shiller index will be released Tuesday, July 31st.

Earlier on Existing Home Sales:
' Existing Home Sales in June: 4.37 million SAAR, 6.6 months of supply
' Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
' Existing Home Sales graphs

Eurozone approves Spanish Bank Bailout, Bond Yields increase

From the WSJ: Euro Zone Approves Terms of Spain Bank Bailout

Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden told reporters there had been a "formal" adoption of the country's memorandum of understanding'the official document outlining the details of the financial assistance package.
...
The bailout will pump up to '100 billion euros ($123 billion) into ailing Spanish banks and will aim to restore the country's financial sector.
...
Also Friday, Spain's government said it expects the economy to remain in recession next year as it steps up austerity measures.

The yield on the Spanish 10 year bond is now above 7.2% - near the high.

More austerity. More recession. The beatings continue ...

Thursday: Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed, Unemployment Claims

Existing home sales for June is the key release on Thursday. Most of the focus will be on sales, but the key numbers are inventory and months-of-supply.

' At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 365 thousand.

' At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for June from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.65 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, up from 4.55 million in May.

' Also at 10:00 AM, Philly Fed Survey for July will be released. This survey really surprised to the downside in June, and the consensus is for a reading of -8.0, up from -16.6 last month (below zero indicates contraction).

' Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board Leading Indicators for June will be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in this index.

Earlier:
' Housing Starts increased to 760 thousand in June, Highest since October 2008
' Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family
' August 1st QE3 Departure Date?

Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family

Halfway through 2012, single family starts are on pace for over 500 thousand this year, and total starts are on pace for about 730 thousand. That is above the forecasts for most analysts (however Lawler and the NAHB were close).

Here is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

Click on graph for larger image.

The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) has been increasing steadily, and completions (red line) is lagging behind - but completions will follow starts up over the course of the year (completions lag starts by about 12 months).

This means there will be an increase in multi-family deliveries next year.

The second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

For the fifth consecutive month, the rolling 12 month total for starts has been above completions - that usually only happens after housing has bottomed.

Earlier on housing starts:
' Housing Starts increased to 760 thousand in June, Highest since October 2008

Wednesday: Housing Starts, Beige Book, more Bernanke

Wednesday will be another busy day for economic data, but first from Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Cautious on Growth, Bernanke Offers No Hint of New Action

The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said Tuesday that the Fed was seeking greater clarity about the health of the recovery, suggesting that officials were not ready to approve another round of stimulus.
...
Rather than committing to new steps, Mr. Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that the decision would turn on the judgment of Fed officials about the pace of job growth in the coming months.

The major issue, he said, is 'whether or not there is in fact a sustained recovery going on in the labor market, or are we stuck in the mud?' Mr. Bernanke added a wrinkle, saying the central bank 'would certainly want to react against any increase in deflation risk.'

' At 7:00 AM AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

' 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for June will be released. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 745,000 (SAAR) in June from 708,000 in May.

' At 10:00 AM, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives. (same report again).

' At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book will be released.

Also during the day, the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June will be released (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

For the July contest:

MBA: "Record Low Mortgage Rates Lead to Jump in Refinance Activity"

From the MBA: Record Low Mortgage Rates Lead to Jump in Refinance Activity

The Refinance Index increased 22 percent from the previous week and is at the highest level since mid-June. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier.

'Refinance application volume increased last week to near peak levels for the year as mortgage rates dropped to a new low, driven down by growing concerns about the health of the US economy,' said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. 'Applications for HARP refinance loans accounted for 24 percent of refinance activity last week, in line with the HARP share for the past few weeks.'

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.74 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.79 percent, with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the purchase index, and the purchase index is mostly moving sideways over the last two years - but has been moving a little recently.

The second graph shows the refinance index.

This index is back to the high for the year.

Some of the increase in the refinance index is related to HARP (HARP activity has picked up this year), but most of this activity is related to the record low mortgage rates.

Housing Starts increased to 760 thousand in June, Highest since October 2008

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000. This is 6.9 percent above the revised May estimate of 711,000 and is 23.6 percent above the June 2011 rate of 615,000.

Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 539,000; this is 4.7 percent above the revised May figure of 515,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 213,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 755,000. This is 3.7 percent below the revised May rate of 784,000, but is 19.3 percent above the June 2011 estimate of 633,000.

Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 493,000; this is 0.6 percent above the revised May figure of 490,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 241,000 in June.

Click on graph for larger image.

Total housing starts were at 760 thousand (SAAR) in June, up 6.9% from the revised May rate of 711 thousand (SAAR). Note that May was revised up from 708 thousand. April was revised up slightly too.

Single-family starts increased 4.7% to 539 thousand in June.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that total housing starts have been increasing lately after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

Total starts are up 59% from the bottom start rate, and single family starts are up 53% from the low.

This was above expectations of 745 thousand starts in June. This is another fairly strong housing report.

Report: Housing Inventory declines 19.4% year-over-year in June

From Realtor.com: June 2012 Real Estate Data

The total US for-sale inventory of single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops (SFH/CTHCOPS) remained at historic lows with 1.88 million units for sale in June, down -19% compared to a year ago, and -39% below its peak of 3.10 million units in September, 2007 when Realtor.com began monitoring these markets.

The median age of the inventory dropped to 84 days, which is down -9.67% on an annual basis.

With some notable exceptions, the majority of housing markets showed signs of continued improvement in June. On a year-over-year basis, the for-sale inventory declined in all but 2 (Shreveport, LA and Philadelphia, PA) of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com, while list prices increased in 101 markets, held steady in 26 markets, and declined in just 19 markets. This pattern is in stark contrast to trends observed in June 2011, when median list prices were down -1% or more on an annual basis in 79 of the 146 markets covered by Realtor.com.

Realtor.com also reports that inventory was up 0.5% from the May level.

The NAR is scheduled to report June existing home sales and inventory this Thursday, July 19th.

Tuesday: Bernanke, CPI, Industrial Production, Builder Confidence

This will be a busy day for economic data, but first from Tim Duy: A Slap in The Face

The retail sales number should be a slap in the face for any FOMC members sitting on the fence. ... Note ... that the 2010 slowdown in sales did not foreshadow a recession. But it did foreshadow the Jackson Hole speech and QE2. With that in mind, I would expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to acknowledge the deceleration of activity when he marches up to Capitol Hill this week. And such acknowledgement would be a signal that more easing is on its way.

' At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for June will be released. The consensus is for headline CPI to be unchanged in June and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

' At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June. The consensus is for Industrial Production to increase 0.3% in June, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.2%.

' At 10:00 AM, the July NAHB homebuilder confidence survey will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 30, up slightly from 29 in June.

' Also at 10:00 AM, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will provide the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Bernanke's comments will be analyzed closely for any comments about QE3, although he hasn't used this forum in the past to hint at further action.

For the July contest:

BLS: CPI unchanged in June

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2012 08:34:00 AM

Gasoline Prices: "Comparative stability"

From Reuters: Gasoline prices fall more, but slide may be over: survey

The Lundberg Survey said the national average price of self-serve, regular gas was $3.41 on July 13, down from $3.478 on June 22, and from $3.615 a year ago.
...
Gasoline prices have fallen 14 percent from a recent peak of $3.967 a gallon set on April 6.

Trilby Lundberg ...said prices may soon enter a period of "comparative stability,"...

Oil prices have rebounded some. Brent is back up to $102.62 per barrel (after falling to $89 per barrel on June 25th), and WTI is up to $87.10.

Professor Hamilton recently presented a calculator from Political Calculations that estimates the cost of gasoline based on Brent oil prices. Currently this suggests a price of around $3.40 per gallon - about the current price.

The following graph shows the decline in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices are down significantly from the peak in early April, but up a few cents over the last two weeks.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Monday: Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Survey

This will be a busy week for economic data.

' At 8:30 AM ET, Retail Sales for June will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.2% in June, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.l%.

' Also at 8:30 AM, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for July will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 4.5, up from 2.3 in June (above zero is expansion). This is the first regional survey for July.

' At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for May report will be released (Business inventories). The consensus is for 0.3% increase in inventories.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight, with little change.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are down about 3, and the DOW futures down about 25.

Oil: WTI futures are down to $86.69 (this is down from $109.77 in February, but up last week) and Brent is at $102.35 per barrel.

Yesterday:
' Summary for Week Ending July 13th
' Schedule for Week of July 15th

Four more questions this week for the July contest: